Thailand - Is there a light at the end of the tunnel for Thai politics... or is it just a high-speed

Key Points The recent events by the National Anti-Corruption Commission suggest that, if formed, a military political party would likely take a centralist approach to politics. The formation of a military political party, that works to unite the polarized political landscape of Thailand, could provide the economic and social stability needed to improve the current downward trending business environment in Thailand. Business Continuity – Improved political stability would reduce business continuity risks for businesses operating in Thailand. Business Risk - A stabilised political environment would increase investor confidence, reduce inflated labour costs and make

businesses in Thailand more competitive and lucrative. Security – The formation of a centralist military party may reduce the violent cyclic political unrest that has plagued Thailand, especially Bangkok, for years. However, the threat from far left and right supporters using terrorist tactics would likely increase in the event a military political party gained power. Travel Risk – In the event that a military political party is able to gain power legitimately and appease the factions within the Thai political scene, then the travel risk for Thailand will likley decrease.

Background

The National Anti-Corruption Commission of Thailand recently impeached former Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and former deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban for their involvement in the 2010 crackdowns on Red Shirt protesters in Bangkok. This impeachment follows the January 2015 impeachment of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra. This middle ground approach provides a gateway for the current ruling military leaders to form a centrist political party and face the opposing parties in a national election. The military has historic alignment with Yellow Shirt supports, but to win an election would need to win the votes of the PTP supporters (Red Shirts). This is a highly ambitious agenda. Indications that the military is seeking political rule via an election process would include the production of a finalised constitution and a firm election date.

Business Impact

Business Risk - The formation of a centralist military party, that is able to unite the polarised political landscape in Thailand would DECREASE the current business risks and improve the economic and business outlook for much of the country The business environment in Thailand has been dire for several years, with widespread political unrest and political stalemate severely hampering Thailand’s ability to keep up with its Asian neighbours, and unable to make the needed reforms to effectively deal with a failing economy. If Thailand is able to push forward a series of economic and political reforms it will likely create a conducive business environment. Business Continuity – The formation of a stable government would mitigate the ongoing cyclic civil unrest that has plagued Thailand for years. The formation of a stable military party would DECREASE business continuity risk from political unrest and civil unrest. Security – The security risk in Thailand is inflated due to the violent nature of the political unrest seen in recent years. In the eventuality that a political party was able to marshal together the various factions of the Thai political scene and reduce the risk of political unrest, the security risk would DECREASE in Thailand. Travel – Tourism in Thailand has been hampered by the cyclic political unrest that has at times paralyzed Bangkok. The removal of this threat would reduce the threat to travellers and allow the tourism industry to recover and implement needed security reforms that will further DECREASE the threat to travellers in Thailand.