Nigeria

Political Risk

• Nigeria faces potential political instability in the short to medium term as the current ruling government faces a real threat of losing power in the upcoming 2015 election

• Bribery and corruption remains prevalent across many sectors and is likely to increase in the run up to the 2015 election. While government expropriation remains an issue, corruption enquiries against foreign firms may see neutralisation and contract dismissal

• A governmental change may also stall the passage of the Petroleum Industries Bill, which has the potential to undermine new investments in the country

• Foreign firms face contract risk as local content provisions are enforced in several sectors

• A continued reliance on oil pricing leaves currency susceptible to deep shocks, however, good foreign exchange reserves mitigate depreciation

• Tax risk will likely increase in the aftermath of the 2015 election

 

Asset Risk 

• Assets located in North Nigeria or the central areas are at risk from attacks from terrorist organisation Boko Haram especially from IEDs and VBIEDs

• Oil infrastructure such as pipeline and plants are at risk from sabotage and attack by militants such as the Movement for the Emancipation of Niger Delta (MEND)

• Sectarian violence remains high in the northern areas of Nigeria – with the 2015 elections acting as a potential trigger for attacks

 

Logistic Risk 

• The threat to aviation from terrorist activity in Nigeria is high, especially in the north of the country. Boko Haram possess the capability to conduct a significant aviation attack

• The threat to sea cargo from Nigeria is high. Piracy remains an issue and attacks can vary from small scale cargo theft to vessel hijackings and oil bunkering

• Highway robberies are prevalent across Nigeria and are conducted by terrorism groups, militants and criminals alike. The threat increases in the north of the country and in the Niger Delta region

 

Personnel Risk

• The travel risk for personnel to Nigeria is HIGH and EXTREME in the north and south of the country

• Politically motivated detentions will likely increase in the run up to the 2015 election

• Personnel in the north of the country face a significant threat from terrorist activity and personnel in the south face a threat from politically motivated violence

• Personnel face a high risk of kidnap for ransom in the north of the country and in the Niger Delta. However there remains a real threat of opportunistic kidnap in many major cities including Abuja and Lagos

 

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